China-Russia-Laos Diplomatic Breakthrough
At the beginning of 2024, China, Russia, and Laos held their first trilateral foreign ministers’ meeting, marking significant progress in multilateral diplomatic cooperation among the three nations.
In terms of economic cooperation, in 2023, bilateral trade between China and Russia reached approximately $190 billion, a 28.9% increase from $147 billion in 2022. Energy cooperation played a key role, with Russia exporting about 104 million tons of crude oil to China in 2023, valued at around $65 billion, accounting for 16% of China’s total annual crude oil imports. Russia also supplied approximately 380 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China through the “Power of Siberia” pipeline.
In 2023, China’s direct investment in Laos grew by 16.5%, reaching approximately $3.5 billion. The China-Laos Railway project, with a total investment of about $6 billion, connects China’s Yunnan Province with the Laotian capital Vientiane, significantly enhancing Laos’ regional economic status. This railway, fully operational as of December 2023, is expected to bring Laos over $100 million in direct economic benefits annually and boost its GDP growth by about 1.5 percentage points. In addition to railway construction, China has invested in several hydropower projects in Laos, which provided over 40% of Laos’ electricity supply in 2023.
In terms of security cooperation, China and Russia conducted six large-scale joint military exercises in 2023, involving over 100,000 participants and covering areas such as air defense, counter-terrorism, and missile defense. Through cooperation with China, Laos has strengthened its border security and counter-terrorism capabilities. In 2023, China and Laos held a joint counter-terrorism exercise in northern Laos, involving over 5,000 troops, aimed at addressing the increasingly complex security challenges in the Southeast Asian region.
A New Pattern of Trilateral Talks
In early 2024, the talks not only reached consensus on economic, political, and security issues but also laid a new foundation for future multilateral cooperation. Deepening economic cooperation, in 2023, China’s outward direct investment reached the second highest in the world, with significant growth in investments in Russia and Southeast Asian countries. In 2023, China’s total investment in Russia reached approximately $40 billion, mainly in the energy, minerals, and infrastructure sectors. This investment drove the growth of bilateral trade, with China-Russia trade totaling $190 billion in 2023, up 28.9% year-on-year. China’s investment in Southeast Asian countries also continued to grow, particularly in Laos. Since the China-Laos Railway project became operational at the end of 2023, monthly cargo transport has exceeded 300,000 tons.
Russia plans to increase its coal exports to China to 120 million tons per year in 2024 to meet China’s growing energy demand. The Nam Ou River hydropower project, a joint venture between China and Laos, completed its second phase of construction in 2023, with a total installed capacity of 1,200 megawatts and an annual power generation of 5 billion kilowatt-hours, providing over 60% of Laos’ electricity supply and generating about $300 million in foreign exchange income annually for Laos through electricity exports.
In terms of security cooperation, China and Russia held several joint military exercises, particularly the “Joint Sea-2023” exercise in the Black Sea region, where the two countries deployed a total of 20 warships and over 40 fighter jets. Laos actively participated in regional security cooperation, establishing a joint border security task force with China in 2023, focusing on combating cross-border crime and terrorism. According to data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, the number of cross-border drug crime cases in Southeast Asia decreased by about 20% in 2023, reflecting the close cooperation between China and Laos.
Deepening Regional Diplomatic Cooperation
In 2023, trade between China and ASEAN reached nearly $975 billion, a 16% increase from 2022. Laos, as a significant beneficiary of the Belt and Road Initiative, saw bilateral trade with China reach approximately $3.2 billion in 2023, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year. This growth was mainly driven by enhanced infrastructure, particularly the China-Laos Railway project. Since its full operation in 2023, the railway is expected to bring Laos about $150 million in direct economic benefits annually, making Laos a crucial hub in regional economics and attracting more foreign investment and trade opportunities.
In regional security cooperation, China and Russia held six large-scale joint military exercises in 2023, covering a wide area from the Far East to Central Asia, involving over 200,000 soldiers. These exercises demonstrated the two countries’ coordinated combat capabilities in responding to complex international security situations. With the support of China and Russia, Laos has strengthened its border security and counter-terrorism measures. Since the establishment of the China-Laos Joint Intelligence Center in early 2023, cross-border crime cases have decreased by nearly 25%.