Diplomatic Interactions
In the Sino-Philippine maritime dispute, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson has repeatedly emphasized that China’s sovereignty over the South China Sea is unshakeable. This is not just empty talk—China invested over $5 billion in 2016 to build several artificial islands, enhancing its military presence in the South China Sea. These islands are equipped with advanced radar systems and missile launchers, further consolidating China’s control. It is reported that these artificial islands cover an area of more than 30 square kilometers, with both military and civilian functions.
The Philippines is not backing down either. President Marcos has repeatedly stated in public that he will not back down on the South China Sea issue. In March of this year, the Philippine Coast Guard reported that over 200 Chinese fishing and coast guard vessels were spotted in the disputed waters within a month. In April, Philippine Defense Secretary Lorenzana announced that the Philippines plans to purchase $2 billion worth of military equipment, including warships and fighter jets, to enhance its maritime defense capabilities. Just last month, the Philippines and the United States held a joint military exercise called “Balikatan,” involving over 5,000 soldiers and 20 ships, aimed at improving the two countries’ maritime coordination capabilities.
In May of this year, China and the Philippines held a high-level meeting in Beijing to discuss solutions to the South China Sea dispute. Despite the meeting lasting eight hours, no specific agreements were reached. “Every minute at the negotiating table felt like a tug-of-war,” commented an unnamed diplomat. This was the third high-level meeting between the two sides in the past year, highlighting the difficulty in resolving the dispute.
The United States and Japan have frequently expressed support for the Philippines, even proposing related resolutions at the United Nations Security Council, demanding that China comply with international law. According to The Wall Street Journal, the United States provided over $100 million in military aid to the Philippines in 2023. This support undoubtedly increased China’s diplomatic pressure, making the interactions between China and the Philippines more complex. Japan also provided $300 million in economic aid to the Philippines in the same year to enhance its infrastructure and maritime patrol capabilities.
Chinese media frequently report on the “historical facts” and “legal basis” of the South China Sea, attempting to influence international perception through a war of public opinion. A program on CCTV detailed the origin of the nine-dash line in the South China Sea, trying to prove China’s sovereignty to the international community. This media campaign has succeeded to some extent in attracting the support of some countries. In 2023, over 20 countries publicly expressed support for China’s position in the South China Sea, including some African and Middle Eastern countries.
At this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, the Chinese delegation presented a series of data and maps, explaining the historical and international law basis for China’s sovereignty over the South China Sea. The Chinese representative pointed out that according to the 1958 Declaration on the Territorial Sea of the People’s Republic of China and the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, China has indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and their adjacent waters.
Military Threat
In recent years, China’s military expansion in the South China Sea has raised widespread concerns and worries. According to data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, China has deployed over 20 J-11 fighter jets and several HQ-9 air defense missile systems in the South China Sea. These deployments not only enhance China’s air defense capabilities but also improve its actual control over the sea area.
The Philippines is also actively enhancing its military capabilities. In April of this year, the Philippine Coast Guard reported that over 200 Chinese fishing and coast guard vessels were spotted in the disputed waters within a month. These vessels not only engage in fishing activities but also patrol and monitor, increasing regional tensions. To address this situation, the Philippine government increased its defense budget to $4 billion in 2023, a 15% year-on-year increase.
The military cooperation between the Philippines and the United States is also deepening. In July of this year, the Philippines and the United States held a large-scale joint military exercise in the South China Sea, codenamed “Balikatan.” This exercise involved over 5,000 soldiers, 20 warships, and dozens of aircraft, aiming to improve the two countries’ maritime combat coordination capabilities. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, this was the tenth joint military exercise between the two countries in the past year, showing the frequency and closeness of U.S.-Philippine military cooperation.
Last year, Japan provided $300 million in military aid to the Philippines to enhance its maritime patrol capabilities and coastal defense facilities. Australia also announced that it would provide $200 million worth of military equipment and technical support to the Philippines over the next five years to strengthen the Philippines’ defense capabilities.
According to The New York Times, China’s military activities in the South China Sea have already attracted the high attention and vigilance of the United States. The U.S. Navy increased its patrol frequency in the South China Sea in 2023, dispatching at least two warships per month for “freedom of navigation” operations to demonstrate its support for the freedom of international waterways. In a public speech, the U.S. Secretary of Defense emphasized, “The United States will not sit idly by while the South China Sea becomes China’s lake.”
In response to this situation, ASEAN countries are also strengthening cooperation to address the increasingly complex security environment. Last year, ASEAN countries held a special summit in Singapore to discuss the South China Sea dispute and its impact on regional security. After the meeting, ASEAN issued a joint statement calling on all parties to exercise restraint and resolve the dispute through peaceful means. The positions of ASEAN countries on the South China Sea issue are not consistent; some countries understand and support China’s actions in the South China Sea, while others express strong opposition and concern.
Economic Impact
China and the Philippines are vying for resources in the South China Sea, which have significant economic value. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the South China Sea may contain 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
In recent years, China’s exploitation activities in the South China Sea have significantly increased. According to the China Offshore Oil News, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has already put 10 oil fields into production in the South China Sea, with an annual output of over 50 million tons of oil equivalent. These oil fields not only meet part of China’s domestic energy demand but also provide important support for China’s energy security.
The fisheries resources in the South China Sea are also a significant economic interest. Statistics show that the annual fish catch in the South China Sea is about 16 million tons, accounting for one-third of China’s total fishery output. The Philippine economy relies on fisheries and marine resource development. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, fisheries account for 1.5% of the Philippines’ GDP, providing a livelihood for millions of fishermen. Due to the Sino-Philippine dispute, Philippine fishermen’s operations in traditional fishing grounds have been restricted. After the international arbitration ruling in 2016, Philippine fishermen briefly resumed fishing near Scarborough Shoal, but Chinese maritime law enforcement actions still affect Philippine fisheries.
In 2019, the bilateral trade volume between China and the Philippines reached $50 billion, but due to the escalating dispute, some Philippine companies’ exports to China were affected. According to data from the Philippine Department of Trade and Industry, Philippine exports to China decreased by 5% in 2020, while exports to other countries increased. China is one of the Philippines’ major trading partners, and the ongoing dispute has undoubtedly impacted the Philippines’ foreign trade.
The tourism industry is also affected. The Philippines is an important tourist destination in Southeast Asia, with Chinese tourists accounting for over 15% of inbound tourists. Since the escalation of the South China Sea dispute, the number of Chinese tourists has decreased. In 2022, the Philippines received only 500,000 Chinese tourists, a 75% decrease from the 2 million in 2019.
Under the Belt and Road Initiative, China has invested in a series of projects in the Philippines, including infrastructure construction and energy development, but the ongoing dispute has slowed the progress of some investment projects. According to the South China Morning Post, some infrastructure projects in the Philippines have been delayed or canceled due to the dispute, affecting economic cooperation between China and the Philippines.
International Impact
The Sino-Philippine maritime dispute has sparked widespread international attention, affecting regional and global geopolitical landscapes. The South China Sea is one of the busiest waterways in the world, with $3.37 trillion in trade passing through it annually, accounting for nearly one-third of global trade.
The United States has long advocated for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and opposed China’s territorial claims and military construction in the region. In 2023, the United States conducted 15 “freedom of navigation” operations in the South China Sea, challenging China’s territorial claims and ensuring the openness of international waterways. The U.S. Secretary of Defense emphasized at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, “The United States will not tolerate any country changing the status quo by force.”
The Japanese government has repeatedly expressed support for the Philippines and provided aid through diplomatic and economic means. For example, in 2023, Japan provided $300 million in military and economic aid to the Philippines, including patrol boats and radar systems, to enhance the Philippines’ maritime defense capabilities. In a press conference, the Japanese Foreign Minister stated, “Japan will continue to support the Philippines in maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea.”
ASEAN as a whole hopes to maintain regional peace and stability, but member states’ positions on the South China Sea issue are not consistent. Vietnam and Malaysia have similar territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, but countries like Cambodia and Laos are more inclined to support China. In 2023, ASEAN issued a joint statement at a special summit, calling for the peaceful resolution of the dispute but failing to reach a consensus on specific solutions.
The United Nations has repeatedly called for dialogue between China and the Philippines to resolve the dispute and has sent special envoys to mediate. In 2023, the United Nations Security Council held a special meeting on the South China Sea issue to discuss the impact of the dispute on international peace and security.
The South China Sea contains rich oil and gas resources, and the ongoing dispute creates uncertainty for the development and utilization of these resources. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the South China Sea may contain 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.