Military Strategy And Objectives
China’s recent military exercises near Taiwan have been numerous and well-planned, but the intensity of the exercises—and the complexity of the exercises—have reached new highs. In April 2024, China held live-fire exercises in the waters around Taiwan, with more than 50 warships and about 100 aircraft participating in the sea and air extravaganza.
Objectives of the military exercises
The military exercises underscore that China views Taiwan’s sovereignty as its core interest and deters all secessionist movements. The exercises cover a variety of potential invasion scenarios, even practicing amphibious landings and complete blockades. These war games, which often simulate heavy strikes against Taiwan’s critical infrastructure to quickly disrupt its communications and logistics functions, have been tracked by satellite imagery and multiple intelligence reports.
Impact and regional response
The broader strategic consequences of China’s military activities go beyond the difficulties of Taiwan and provincial security conditions. Other countries in the region, especially Japan and the Philippines, have increased their own military vigilance by conducting joint exercises with the United States to help offset China’s military vigilance. The United States has also stepped up its naval activity in the South China Sea, deploying an aircraft carrier strike group to directly counter Chinese actions.
Measurable Consequences of Military Exercises
We can measure the frequency and scale of these exercises to understand how effective they are. Between 2020 and 2024, Chinese exercises in the Taiwan Strait surged by a staggering 150%, with each exercise using more advanced weapon systems and greater coordination. Exercises also have economic impacts, as they disrupt commercial shipping lanes and increase insurance premiums while delaying global supply chains. The same can be said for Taiwan, where the fishing and tourism industries have suffered reputational damage (either seen as security threats or actually restricted during exercises).
Strategic Innovation and Development
The execution and effectiveness of these exercises is heavily dependent on technological advances, which introduces a layer. In this case, drones and cyber capabilities were involved in exercises focused on electronic warfare (EW)/information superiority. Artificial intelligence was also clearly used to simulate the exercises – helping to increase accuracy and adaptability.
Surveillance And Intelligence Operations
Surveillance Methods and Techniques
China uses a number of methods and techniques in its surveillance operations against Taiwan, including manual reconnaissance. Military facilities and activities around the island are often tracked using high-resolution satellites as well as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). China has also reportedly stepped up satellite espionage activities by 2023, using satellites with advanced imaging sensors to take high-resolution images in real time.
Major Collection Operations
Intelligence collection is central to China’s approach to Taiwan. This includes electronic eavesdropping, cyber espionage, and human intelligence operations. In August 2023, Taiwan was reported to have suffered a series of cyberattacks from China targeting important government and military systems. These were attempts to compromise networks and steal trade secrets.
Frequency and Impact Data
Reports and incidents of surveillance operations are a useful indicator of how prevalent these phenomena are and how intensely they occur: Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense said that China’s annual cyber espionage cases against Taiwan increased by 40% from 2020 to the end of October. In 2023 alone, more than 150 major cyber intrusions targeting key industries such as defense, telecommunications, and infrastructure were recorded.
Integration of surveillance in Chinese war games
China’s various forms of surveillance are integrated into its military operations – providing it with real-time data on which to base tactical decisions. During a large-scale exercise in April 2024, many surveillance drones were cued and provided real-time guidance to the command and control center. This integration facilitates accurate mission execution and rapid adaptation to changing ground conditions.
Regional and global response
China’s surveillance and intelligence activities are closely monitored around the world. The United States and its allies have conducted their own intelligence-gathering operations in the region, adding missions for aircraft and reconnaissance ships. The United States also launched several intelligence-sharing programs with Taiwan in 2023, enhancing its expertise in thwarting Chinese espionage.
Provocation And Escalation Risks
Provocative events
China has conducted more aggressive military exercises around Taiwan. Earlier this month, China took the unusual step of flying fighter jets across the unofficial median line of the Taiwan Strait, a move that has long helped avoid dangerous miscalculations. This year, China has conducted more than 300 incursions, including close flights and mock strikes, which have also raised concerns about misperceptions.
Escalation patterns and triggers
These provocations often occur during important political events in Taiwan or international events to which the Taiwanese government is invited. They include China’s most extensive live-fire exercises ever conducted near Taiwan waters, followed by a high-profile visit to Taiwan by a U.S. congressional delegation in September 2023.
Quantifiable escalation risks
Escalation risks can be measured by the frequency of exercises and the best exercise effects. At the same time, China’s large-scale military exercises near Taiwan increased by 70% between 2020 and 2023. All exercises involved increasing numbers of troops, aircraft, or/and naval vessels, and the April 2024 military exercises exceeded all previous exercises, involving more than 70,000 personnel).
International Response and Mitigation
The international community has been bold in its response to China’s provocations. The United States, Japan, and Australia have demonstrated their strength and united preparedness through joint military exercises. Nearly three years ago, in December 2023, the United States announced a $2 billion arms sale to Taiwan (including a more powerful missile defense system and an offensive and defensive combination of anti-ship missiles, specifically designed to enhance Taipei’s ability to resist Chinese attacks).
Impact on Regional Stability
This development in China has far-reaching implications for regional stability. As more and more countries in the Asia-Pacific region are increasing their defense budgets and military preparations, an arms race is underway. The South China Sea is a key sea lane that brings the Chinese military into close contact with the militaries of other regional powers, further increasing the risk of conflict.
International Reactions And Diplomatic Dynamics
US Response
The United States has been in fairly aggressive mode in response to Chinese military exercises around Taiwan. In 2023, the United States conducted a freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) in the Taiwan Strait, demonstrating its willingness to enforce freedom of movement through this international waterway. The United States responded by increasing its naval presence in the region, sending more ships, including an aircraft carrier strike group, to counter what it called Chinese provocations on the high seas. In December 2023, the United States signed a major arms sales agreement with Taiwan, including $2 billion in advanced missile defense systems and other military assistance.
Japan’s Strategic Position
Japan has strongly condemned China’s “intimidation force” in the waters between Taiwan and the Philippines. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces and the United States held joint military exercises in 2023 that featured amphibious operations and missile defense. Japan has been increasing its defense spending and is preparing to purchase advanced fighter jets and missile systems to deter China. The Japanese Ministry of Defense said in August that Japanese waters were crowded with Chinese naval vessels, leading to diplomatic protests and expanded military patrols in the East China Sea.
EU + NATO Response
The European Union (EU) has expressed deep concern over the escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait. European stance In a statement issued in March 2023, EU member states called for restraint and stressed the need to maintain peace and stability in the region. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has also supported Taiwan, with member states such as the United Kingdom and Germany strengthening their naval presence in the Indo-Pacific region. In October 2023, a NATO-led naval exercise aimed at supporting regional allies and ensuring compliance with maritime law in international waters was attended by warships from several NATO member states in the South China Sea.
ASEAN’s Balancing Act
Diplomatically, this puts the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in a difficult position as it tries to manage relations with China and Taiwan. As mainstream ASEAN members maintain a “one China” perspective, Singapore and other countries are uneasy about China’s steady march toward military power status. The meeting also issued such joint conclusions, which came after several high-level meetings of ASEAN on the issue in 2023. The Philippines and Vietnam, along with other ASEAN countries, have also taken surprisingly tougher stances as they seek to upgrade their respective military capabilities and defense cooperation with the United States and Western partners.
Australia has stepped up its engagement on Taiwan security issues. Australia announced a major defense policy shift in 2023, focused on countering Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. The country signed the AUKUS agreement with Washington and London to purchase nuclear-powered submarines and enhance its strategic deterrence. Australia participated in joint military exercises with the United States and Japan, aimed at demonstrating its willingness to continue peacekeeping efforts. The Australian government has also stepped up its diplomatic efforts, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Foreign Minister Marise Payne holding high-level talks with ASEAN partners and other regional players to jointly respond to China’s actions.