Military Technology Analysis
The test, designed to verify the performance and reliability of advanced missile technology, underscored China’s determination to improve its strategic deterrence capabilities. The further successful launch of an ICBM shows that China continues to make great strides in missile technology. According to state media reports, the test involved the launch of a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) carrying multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). A missile can now carry multiple nuclear warheads, each of which can be guided to a different target.
Specifications and technological innovations
The new ICBM has a range of more than 12,000 kilometers, capable of hitting targets anywhere in the world. The missile is also equipped with more advanced guidance systems and rocket technology, which improves its accuracy while reducing the possibility of being intercepted by enemy missiles. It is equipped with hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs), which can make dramatic movements when falling back to Earth and are extremely difficult to intercept. The rockets launched by these HGVs can fly at speeds of more than 5 times the speed of sound, making them extremely difficult to detect and intercept.
Impact on the regional and global security landscape
Missile capabilities are a serious issue for countries in the region, and they need to reassess their defense policies as soon as possible. The ability to carry and release MIRVs as well as HGVs opens a new phase in the missile defense process, laying a completely different foundation for planning and executing these missions. China’s recent developments in missile technology mean that the ongoing strategic arms race requires a response from the global arms control framework and military positioning.
Test Methodology and Results Evaluation
China has previously stated that they used these tests to “make up for certain deficiencies in the non-lethal version of its first hypersonic missile, which was launched using an outdated suborbital rocket booster instead of China’s more advanced ballistic missiles. The launch sequence included pre-launch diagnostics, countdown procedures, and post-launch analysis processes. Telemetry data acquired during the successful release of the MIRV and HGVs showed that all warheads hit their targets with only slight deviations.
Taiwan Strait Security Dynamics
Beijing has upped the ante for the Chinese military, which has been spotted conducting repeated air and sea exercises in waters outside Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), and has reported a surge in Chinese intercepts of the region, with more than 1,000 sorties flying over the area last year alone. The increase in military activity is intended to show that China is ready and able to enforce its territorial claims and test Taiwan’s response.
How the agreement affects Taiwan’s defense strategy
Taiwan has responded to its overall instability by building a strong defense focused on counterattacks and asymmetric warfare. The military also emphasizes sovereign defense, with its global military’s top priority being to provide state-of-the-art missile solutions and other weapon systems to ensure cybersecurity and defend Taiwan against current drone threats. Taiwan’s defense budget climbed to $711 billion in 2021, $16.89 billion next year, compared to $17 billion last year. The budget increase highlights Taiwan’s determination to better equip itself and be ready to thwart any Chinese strike.
Regional and Alliance Response
The United States reaffirmed its commitment to assist Taiwan under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, which ensures continued arms sales to Taiwan and guarantees free access for U.S. Navy ships to waters near the region. The approval of a 2023 arms deal for Taiwan, including advanced missile systems and surveillance equipment (worth $1.8 billion, with total spending expected to be $14 billion this year), has prompted regional countries including China, Japan, and South Korea to increase military purchases, as they all feel the need to replenish their militaries with new weapons to avoid being caught out in the event of a sudden resumption of hostilities at sea or on land.
Japan has similarly expressed concerns about the lack of stability in the Taiwan Strait and recognizes its strategic value to regional security. Japanese officials have stressed the need for like-minded countries to present a united front to protect peace and stability in Asia. In the case of the Taiwan Strait, other members of the Quad, such as Australia and India, share similar concerns because of their own national security interests.
Global Security Implications
Given its position in global trade and supply chains, the threat of conflict in the Taiwan Strait is one of the greatest risks to international economic stability. The Taiwan Strait border is a vital chokepoint for a large amount of global maritime trade. More worryingly from a European perspective, the United States and China face increasing strategic competition and military strength in all operational domains. The Taiwan Strait is a flashpoint in this competition, raising concerns that it could spread to other global powers and escalate into a full-scale war.
International Response
The United States is watching with concern the development of China’s increasingly sophisticated missile capabilities as it seeks to ensure it stays ahead of the next great power on land and at sea. U.S. officials have warned in the past that China is developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and hypersonic glide vehicles equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). The U.S. Department of Defense said in an accompanying statement that these innovations could undermine the traditional strategic balance and hinder missile defense interception efforts. The United States expressed concern and called it transparent and dialogue, and called on China to start arms control negotiations to avoid the risk of a possible arms race.
EU’s view
European officials stressed that it is very important that China does not violate international standards or provoke aggression. The EU called for intensified diplomatic efforts to address the root causes of tension and create stability in the region. Germany and France strongly called for a multilateral approach to address China’s missile ambitions.
Regional powers responded
Japanese defense officials said they intend to upgrade Japan’s missile defense capabilities and improve military readiness to respond to China’s aggression. The test accelerated Japan’s efforts to develop more advanced missile interception capabilities. South Korean officials have also expressed concerns and are pushing for stronger defense measures to counter the threat posed by China’s missile capabilities. The United States and its Asia-Pacific allies have also conducted joint military exercises to emphasize their commitment to regional security and the United States’ deterrence capabilities.
Australia has also strengthened its defense cooperation with the United States and other regional partners, emphasizing efforts to improve its own Iron Dome missile defense system. China’s development of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles and heavy ballistic missiles violates the current arms control framework and requires a new approach to deal with these advanced technologies. Some experts believe that these capabilities need to be addressed in future arms control negotiations, and even the United Nations has emphasized its deep concern about modern high-precision missiles and said it is a key issue that should be considered in international treaties.
Strategic Impact
China recently deployed a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), indicating that China has the ability to launch each ICBM to multiple locations. The missile being tested is presumably the DF-41, which has a range of 12,000 to 15,000 km and is capable of striking the continental United States.
Solid fuel enables the DF-41 to be launched faster and has better maneuverability than liquid-fueled missiles, which includes combining a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) with the DF-41. A HGV can fly at speeds in excess of Mach 5 and perform aerodynamic maneuvers, making it very difficult to intercept. What impact will this have on India and Japan, as they are neighbors whose own defense planning needs to take into account China’s enhanced missile capabilities. India has accelerated its own missile projects under the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) – such as the Agni-V ICBM, and hypersonic weapons continue to develop at an alarming pace.
Global Strategic Stability
China’s advances in MIRVs and HGVs are fundamental changes to the strategic equation that will complicate arms control. China is not a party to more traditional strategic arms control agreements between Washington and Moscow, although the United States and Russia will likely continue to play the lead role in any such dialogue given their large nuclear arsenals.
This change could provide a rationale for rethinking and modernizing existing arms control treaties, possibly including New START, to account for new technological capabilities and potential emerging powers. To counter the threat posed by advanced ICBMs and heavy hypersonic missiles, countries could shift investments toward early warning technologies for missile defense systems and develop reconnaissance capabilities, and the United States has announced its intention to strengthen this system—Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD)—to account for changes in existing threats.