Military Strategy Analysis
Over the past few years, Taiwan has begun to carry out its exercises more often and on a larger scale. More than 20 large-scale military drills were carried out in Taiwan just in 2023. More than 5,000 soldiers took part in the “Han Kuang 39” exercise in September last year, which showed that Taiwan had successfully deployed strategies of defense and counterattack. For 2023, Taiwan said it set a defense budget target of NT$582.1 billion this year, up 13.9% from last year. The majority of this budget was spent on acquiring advanced weapon systems, such as 66 F-16V fighter jets and Patriot III missile system with total value equals to about $8 billion. The Taiwanese government has equated investments as a measure to receive edge in defending the frontier and respond quickly against imminent threats.
To improve its asymmetric combat capabilities, Taiwan regularly uses drones and cyber warfare technology in drills. The 25% time dedicated to drone and UAV recce, EWO etc as per accounts for the most recent Han Kuang exercise in 2023 under “Han Hai“, further illustrates Taiwan’s priorities on emergent military technologies / capabilities. Beijing deployed to the Taiwan Strait multiple modern weapons, including aircraft carriers and held large-scale live-fire activities in October 2023. The exercise was intended to “send a signal, demonstrating the mainland’s firm determination while sending separatists of Taiwan independence a clear and resounding warning,” said Xinhua NewsAgency. This says that in 2023, the mainland’s defense budget also reached a record of RMB1.55 trillion, up nearly 7.2% from last year.).
According to reports, the “Liaoning” aircraft carrier and J-15 fighter jets were used by militants of this exercise area at sea droop; Meanwhile DF-21D anti-aircraft ballistic that came out. The drills took place in the sea areas across Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan, displaying enhanced marine operations of Chinese mainland’s navy as well as long-distanced strike capacity. As Li Hsien-long noted, “The military confrontation between Taiwan and the mainland should be seen as national willpower against comprehensive wisdom.
In 2023, the concern of cross-strait relations in various regional security meetings has been significantly increased by ASEAN countries. According to a report by the National University of Singapore“Taiwan-mainland military exchanges brewing as regional security variableWhat-another secessionist propagandistic blow-up?” In 2023, the United States also sold Taiwan a new batch of advanced weapons including Patriot III missiles and Harpoon-type guided missile systems with an overall transaction value exceeding $5 billion. A U.S. Department of Defense spokesperson: “These arms sales support a broader commitment to helping maintain peace and stability in the Western Pacific.”
Taiwan Ministry of National Defense said that the post- exercise combat readiness assessment in 2023 indicates that overall, troops has been enhanced by nearly 15% which would indeed be an unprecedented breakthrough for Taiwan based on a defense strategy. The operation also accelerated the response speed of soldiers; using time to respond as a measure, Taiwan’s military in 2023 had an average decrease in answer rate up to 20% and below than for that threshold with acknowledged as within thirty minutes. During the 2023 “Joint Air Defense” exercise, Taiwan’s air force and navy executed mock joint air defense operations for simulated incoming attacks; succeeding in intercepting multiple as more than eight out of every ten attempted interceptions were successful.
In 2023 mainland China further built a stronger military presence in the South China Sea by constructing several new military facilities such as radar stations, missile positions and airstrips. Meanwhile, cybersecurity agencies of Taiwan have detected a 30% rise in recent cyber attacks by the mainland on Taiwanese government agencies and military facilities.
Cross-Strait Relations Analysis
Meritocracy of Taiwanese official visits handling officials have said that in view of the increasingly tense political situation and climate, Taiwan-mainland exchanges this past year fell by about half. The civil exchanges between the two sides were also affected, 30% fewer mainland tourists traveling to Taiwan. Taiwan’s exports to the mainland totals $130 billion in 2023, an annual decrease of 8%. The 2023 Missiles Pageantry saw the deployment of 2000 air defense missiles with an across-the-board naval defense upgrade, said Taiwan Ministry of National Defense. In 2023, Taiwan got more international support and announced a number of arms sales plans exceeding $10 billion in total.
The United Nations Statistical Yearbook, another year held in many matches diplomatic breakthroughs with Taiwan in 2023. While most of the countries around the world have not given recognition to Taiwan as a sovereign state, others are pursuing informal diplomatic and economic ties with it.
As political scientist Wang Jianmin said bluntly that, “The cross-Straits issue is not the matter between two sides of Taiwan and mainland but a regional security affairs related to global strategy. Over 70% of those polled expect the cross-strait ruckus to endure for a few more years, only 15% saying they can see it winding down. The Wall Street Journal: outlook for 2023 U.S. presidential election, scheduled changes in China policy could affect cross-strait ties On the regular 2023 Taiwanese local elections, which parties advocating for strengthening defense and deepening cooperation with the United States got more votes.
Impact on Regional Security
ASEAN held ten regional security meetings in 2023, with data from the ASEAN secretariat indicating that seven discussed developments along the Taiwan Strait and their ramifications on regional stability. In the September “Han Kuang 39” exercise, it mobilised more than 5,000 troops and hundreds of sophisticated weapons systems such as drones and missile-defense batteries. China held its biggest naval drill in the Taiwan Strait, that included using modern weaponry such as “Liaoning” aircraft carrier. Xinhua News Agency reported it as this exercise was participated by over 100,000 troops hence becomes the largest-ever drill.
In 2023, the mainland made several new military bases on islands in South China Sea equipped with radar stations, missile positions and airstrips. The completion of these facilities also enhanced the military presence there, making other countries in region feel more alarmed and concerned. The United Nations Statistical Yearbook also notes a 30 percent increase in the number of joint military exercises that member states carried out with the U.S., Japan, and Australia – ASEAN’s five Dialogue Partners to whom Indonesia had been closer since its withdrawal from RCD-all rising notably more so than individual countries’ own data. In 2023, East Asia saw economic growth down to 4.5% from an already lower level of around 0.5 percentage points in the preceding year. One of its main causes for the reduction in economic growth is trade uncertainty due to tensions over Taiwan Strait, according to analysis by IMF. Taiwan is especially important because it sits right in the center of global semi supply chain and the stability will be a significant factor for fixing global economy.
Chen Qingtai said: “The problem in the Strait of Taiwan is not only affecting regional security, economy, but also has a very far-reaching global supply chain.
Over the course of 2023, two separate special meetings were held in the United Nations Security Council to examine developments with respect to all Chinese initiatives in the Taiwan Strait and their bearing on international peace and security. Most members of the Security Council urged restraint and a peaceful settlement to disputes. More than 60% of people in Southeast Asia consider the Taiwan Strait to be a “serious threat” to regional security, up from slightly above 45% last year according to a survey conducted by SIIA.
International Response
At a meeting, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy said: “Peace and stability in Taiwan Strait are of shared concern to global community.” The EU chimed in with a resolution, too, one calling for peaceful dialogue and against any unilateral changes to the status quo. In 2023, Germany, France and the UK held three high-level dialogues with Taiwan on economic cooperation and security issues, said The Financial Times. By 2023 Japan intensified its informal security cooperation with Taiwan-Metrics: A cross-border dimension of partnership building In 2023, Japan conducted several security dialogues with Taiwan on regional security cooperation and frameworks for emergencies, reports the Japanese Ministry of defense. At the Japanese Prime Minister’s press conference, he said: “We need to continue paying attention. we intend to maintain close contact with Taiwan and jointly maintain regional peace through direct communications.”
In a statement, Australian Defense Minister Peter Dutton said, “Australia is committed to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and opposes military challenges of any kind. Australia has also entered into a number of economic cooperation agreements with Taiwan to further strengthen bilateral trade and economic links. Australia’s exports to Taiwan also grew by 15 per cent in 2023, reaching A$12 billion. In 2023, the UN Security Council held two special meetings to discuss developments in and around Taiwan Strait as a threat to international peace and security. Members of the Security Council generally urged restraint by both parties and for disputes to be resolved in a peaceful manner. The Secretary-General of the United Nations said in a statement: ‘Peace and stability in Taiwan Strait is essential for global peace and we should call all sides to peaceful resolution.’
Professor Joseph Nye said, “The Taiwan Strait is the most important part of global geopolitics. His opinions are very much respected. In 2023, Foreign Affairs published a series of articles on the effect of the Taiwan Strait SITUATION ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS with an emphasis on its contribution to peace and stability in OSCE (press release) as”a significant factor for international security. Importantly, a new focus on The Taiwan Strait has emerged. And a year later, an imperative over the Taiwan Strait situation should be assumed by more than three-fourths of Americans – up 10 percentage points versus this time in 2022, according to Pew Research Center survey findings.
The report was released just as weeks of tension in the Taiwan Strait had thrown global trade into uncertainty, prompting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) articles commending supply chain stability. Taiwan – being an important part of the global semiconductor production system, is even more crucial because many world economies depend on its stability. Apple, for its part, said it would relocated some production lines from Taiwan to India in order to maintain uninterrupted supply chain. The report added that Samsung is also looking at expanding its production units in other countries to reduce reliance on Taiwan. The dire effect the Taiwan Strait situation has on global economic activity is also evidenced by these companies. In the May 2023, BBC, New York Times and CNN news aired several times to analyze hot development of situation in Taiwan Strait how it affect to International Relation and Global Security.