Present State
The unit of national strategic analysis is a comprehensive assessment of the basic components that make up the dense functions of geopolitical, economic, technological and military complexity of any particular country. This assessment is the basis for strategic planning and future assumptions.
Geopolitical Position
Given its global position, engagement is crucial for the United States as it helps maintain its superpower status, through its strong alliance system and membership in international institutions such as NATO or the United Nations). The fact that American imperialism has military bases in more than 70 countries is a testament to its geopolitical courage.
Economic Status
Its economic strategy can be illustrated with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a plan to strengthen regional connections while achieving bottom-up growth through global production networks. The initiative has generated $400 billion in investments covering 138 countries as part of efforts to promote economic development.
Technological Advancement
The importance of technological advancement cannot be underestimated. Israel, which provides huge state support for technology and innovation, especially in the fields of cybersecurity and defense technology. Compared to the world, it is one of the countries that spends more than 4.9% of its GDP share on research and development.
Military Capabilities
Military capabilities are another pillar of national strategy. Russia’s approach is strategic, focused on strengthening its military by updating and repositioning capabilities. As of October last year, Russia spent about 4.3% of GDP on defense and prioritized nuclear and cyber capabilities.
Future State
Predicting the future requires looking at what factors will influence national strategies, and each country may face different opportunities and challenges.
Geopolitical Forecast
When geopolitical tensions are volatile, countries such as India may gain more influence in international politics. By 2030, India will become the third largest economy, which can determine the terms of most global economic policies and form strategic alliances to protect its security relations and defense trade.
Economic Forecast
The EU has been working to ensure digital sovereignty as part of its economic forecast. Through increased investment in digital infrastructure and reforms, especially the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and the new Platform Services DMA, the bill proposes an ambitious effort to rewrite Internet regulations to completely break away from dependence on non-European tech giants and reduce potential vulnerabilities, just like the novel that reinforced the top of the Egyptian train, where intruders could get stuck.
Technology Trends
Around the world, countries are increasingly focusing their attention on the technological frontier: artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing. To ensure that the technological advantage is maintained, the United States has invested more than $1 billion in a five-year National Quantum Initiative to promote quantum research and development.
Military Modernization
Future plans around military capabilities will see the rise of unmanned and autonomous weapon systems. China, for example, is investing heavily in artificial intelligence to integrate these technologies into its defense systems, under the guise of improving its military modernization plans, with an annual budget growth rate of 6.8%.
Risk
Risk identification and mitigation are at the core of security, and in an increasingly competitive strategic environment, future success means a country cannot afford to lose wealth – or worse, sovereignty.
Geopolitical instability
Exposure to geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Conflicts such as the Syrian civil war have had a major impact on global oil prices and international security issues, with devastating effects on regional stability. The unpredictability of these conflicts presents a major challenge for strategic planners.
Economic vulnerability
A concurrent risk would be economic vulnerability. When the main source of income for many countries comes from one or two commodities such as uranium and coal, this can lead to economic chaos when global prices fall. The crisis deepened in 2014 as oil prices plummeted, triggering hyperinflation and a humanitarian disaster that plunged millions into poverty.
Technological disruption
Technological disruption that is difficult to deal with. With rapid technological changes, cybersecurity can indeed be a mixed blessing. While providing additional security and capabilities, they also often introduce new risks to countries. 2017: More than 220,000 computer ransomware attacks, the so-called WannaCry, in more than 150 countries showed that the risks posed by cyber dependency are real.
Military escalation
This is certainly an ongoing risk, but with military escalation. As with the conflict in Ukraine, military confrontations can quickly internationalize and undermine security everywhere. This in turn shows the wider geopolitical impact of military actions in international responses, which Latvia has supported with sanctions and military support.
Transitional Analysis
In-depth transformation analysis, assessing the shift from the existing situation to the desired situation, key strategic opportunities and structural changes. The importance of this analysis lies in managing these uncertainties to take advantage of the dynamics of change.
Flexibility needed to cope with geopolitical changes
As the global centers of power shift, countries like this one are reassessing their strategies. Japan’s recent efforts to revise its pacifist constitution and develop stronger military capabilities are part of a strategic response to growing tensions in the Asia-Pacific region. It aims to prevent threats and maintain regional stability.
Economic transformation strategy
Economic transformation, a major shift as the shift to renewable energy continues. By 2040, Germany hopes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 60% – significantly abandoning traditional energy resources, moving to a green economy, and (hopefully) buying new growth engines. This shift is not only aimed at trying to reduce the impact on the environment, but also helps reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels.
Leveraging the technological revolution
Countries are investing more in infrastructure, especially in technology, and trying to optimize advances such as 5G and artificial intelligence. In order to maintain its future economic and military advantage, the US government has invested $1.5 billion in AI research through its American AI Initiative to ensure it remains a world leader in these technologies
Military Adaptation
A more obvious example of the military adaptation strategy can be found in the modernization efforts being undertaken by several countries today. India is working to improve its navy, building new submarines and aircraft carriers for security and strategic reasons to influence the Indian Ocean to counter growing maritime threats.