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China’s intelligence agencies also keep a close eye on global threats and incidences of cyberattacks, terrorism, and geo-political conflicts. In 2023 China spent above 1.4 trillion yuan on homegrown chip development, raised 3 million 5G base stations, and put in place quantum communication technologies to safeguard and ensure availability of intelligence for ensuring national security and stability across the globe.
Global Cybersecurity Risks
These agencies in China are keeping very close eyes on the changing global cybersecurity risks that are evolving at a very fast pace around the globe in the last few years. The International Data Corporation (IDC) report estimates that the global cybersecurity market reached an impressive $213 billion in 2023 and will grow to $267 billion by 2026. These figures account for a sizeable percentage of the impact and economic weight of cybersecurity issues in question. Cyberterror comes in different types, from Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks through Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs), and they can cause serious damage to governments, business, and individual users alike. The SolarWinds case” from 2021 revealed significant weaknesses in supply chain security among enterprises, as the incident affected whole federal agencies in the United States and numerous global enterprises.
There have been an increase in both the frequency and complexity of cyber crimes in recent years. According to the China Internet Development Report, more than 3 million cyberattacks per day on average within China were indicated in 2023, out of which 28 percent targets the financial systems. Cyber espionage has also emerged as a growing critical security concern in the world. From intelligence analyses, transnational hacker groups such as APT41 are found to carry out extended operations that involve spying on specific sensitive industries, making use of phishing emails and malicious codes as instruments for carrying out their missions. Therefore, such activities not only affect the decision-making process at the level of national strategies but threaten also the operation of critical infrastructures.
The recent IoT proliferation has aggravated cyber-risks. Most attacks are data breaches that occur in very critical scenarios of smart homes and in industrial control systems, taking advantage of exploitable vulnerabilities. Chinese companies are now speeding up the deployment of blockchain encryption technology to better secure IoT data exchange. Internationally, China actively engages in global cyberspace discussions. At the 2022 Global Cyberspace Governance Conference, it presented the “Community of Shared Future in Cyberspace” to which many countries have responded. The initiative encompasses everything from data sovereignty protection to cross-border crime prevention and technological cooperation for building a just recruitment inside a cybersecurity ecosystem.
International Terrorism Threats
International terrorism is a global issue that Chinese intelligence agencies are always on the watch for. In the year 2022, according to the Global Terrorism Index, there were a total of 6,523 terrorist attacks causing more than 29,000 deaths around the world; 70% of these incidents happened in South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. What happens in such areas has a direct bearing on the safety of the whole world, hence the need for intelligence collection and analysis by China. Significant changes bring the organizational structure and tactics of terrorism, an example being the terrorist group ISIS, which, at the highest peak, controlled territory equal in size to that of the UK and used social media to spread extremist ideologies and recruite terrorist from over 100 countries. The Chinese intelligence agencies closely monitor such transnational terrorist groups, especially their activities in Central and Southeast Asia.
Terrorist attacks have reportedly increased by 35% annually in Africa’s Sahel region- globally, al-Qaeda and its affiliates remain active. These terrorist organizations derived a significant portion of their funding from ways such as money laundering, illegal oil trading, and kidnappings for ransom. Chinese intelligence agencies strengthen monitoring international financial networks in order to cut the financial means of these organizations. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) faces threats from terrorism, as demonstrated by an attack that occurred in 2016 just outside the Gwadar port in Pakistan, which directly targeted Chinese investment projects and personnel, killing several security personnel.
New technologies are by far quickly rendering the terrorist activities secretive and convoluted. Terrorists use various mediums of encrypted communication applications, drones, and deepfake technologies to plan and promote terror activities. In return, next-generation data analysis and countermeasures technologies have been developed by Chinese intelligence agencies to track the online activities of terrorists, as well as monitor potential attack targets. International cooperation is a major component in the war against terrorism. China actively participates in UN counterterrorism operations and conducts joint exercises with member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The “Peace Mission 2023” exercise focused on counterterrorism special operations and intelligence-sharing mechanisms, significantly enhancing coordination among member states.
Geopolitical Conflicts
According to SIPRI, global military expenditure reached a record high of almost USD 2.4 trillion in 2023, a 3.7% year-on-year increase, with the major powers’ military competition heavily affecting geopolitical dynamics. The very fresh, last continuing drawing attention in the world is the Russia-Ukraine contention that broke out in 2022. The conflict has resulted as of 2023 in more than 500,000 casualties, displaced millions upon millions of civilians, and registered direct economic losses that touch on more than $1.5 trillion. This phenomenon affects the security of Europe, but at the same time strangles world food and energy markets. Chinese intelligence agencies collect multi-channel information on the conflict in order to inform relevant policy-making.
Geopolitical disputes with respect to the Asia-Pacific remain focused on the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. In fact, the United States has deployed over 60% of naval formations to the Indo-Pacific region in 2023 and has been reinforcing military cooperation with Japan, Australia, and the Philippines. These steps therefore constitute a direct threat to peace and stability in the region. To safeguard national security and improve intelligence control regarding regional dynamics, China has implemented greater operational deployment of the “Dongfeng Missile” series. Geopolitical conflicts flare in the Middle East, the energy hub for the entire world. The 2022 Israel-Palestine conflict left behind more than 3,000 fatalities and raised oil prices by more than 20% in a very short time. China played an active role in mediating peace in the Middle East; thus, in 2023, it restored diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. All these helped contribute toward further stabilization of the region.
The Arctic can hold almost 90 billion barrels of oil and over 47 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, thus making it a center of attraction for the U.S., Russia, and Europe. With the introduction of the concept known as the Polar Silk Road, China has made proposals and has actively taken part in Arctic affairs. This will pave the way for it to secure strategic resources and shipping routes. Geopolitical conflicts are also a cause for more competition in military technologies. By 2023, the U.S. developed hypersonic weapons and AI military systems under an allocation of $260 billion; they are likely to radically change war. Chinese intelligence agencies have allocated huge tracks on following these developments and at the same time building domestic innovations capabilities.
Global Economic Intelligence Competition
Global economic intelligence competition is becoming increasingly important in international relations. However, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report, global GDP attained $101.5 trillion in 2023, with more than 60% of total GDP made up by China, the U.S., and the EU. China’s economic intelligence competition with the U.S. goes to an unprecedented level. The U.S. passed the CHIPS Act in 2022 assigning $52 billion to enhance domestic chip manufacturing while instituting strict technology export regulations on China. China invested over 1.4 trillion yuan in its semiconductor self-sufficiency plans to overcome these technological blockades.
The competition occurs through energy, trade, and finance beyond the technology sector. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) production curtailment in 2022 led to world oil prices shooting up by over 40% in a short time, with disastrous effects on countries much dependent on energy imports. Under the Belt and Road Initiative, China diversifies its energy transport routes to avert this risk. Direct costs from global supply chain adjustments were $1.2 trillion in 2023, according to a McKinsey report. Counter intelligence measures were quickly instituted through analyzing their intention by Chinese intelligence agencies whenever the move saw multinational companies like some shift production to Southeast Asia.
The omnipresence of the U.S. dollar makes chain reactions triggered by the frequent fluctuations of the global foreign exchange market. In 2022, following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, as much as $150 billion left emerging markets, triggering significant currency devaluation in most countries. China is pushing towards the internationalization of the renminbi and created the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and increase monitoring of international capital flows to stabilize its domestic financial market. Complicate this heightened competition for economic intelligence. The global digital economy reached $38.1 trillion in 2023, which accounts for 37.2% of global GDP, and continues to make data security and cross-border data flows increasingly competitive areas.
Emerging Technology Security
Emerging technology security has become a top priority for Chinese intelligence agencies. According to PwC’s 2023 Technology Development Report, the combined market value of the emerging fields such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, 5G communications, and biotechnology has crossed $10 trillion, along with an annual growth rate of more than 15%. These technologies, while boosting the global economy, also generate very complex challenges in the field of security. The leak of OpenAI’s GPT model in 2021 raised alarms about AI model exploitation. In and around these domains, Chinese intelligence arms have intensified their analyses of AI technology export control systems, along with real-time surveillance of potential vulnerabilities in order to avert illegal acquisition or misuse of domestic AIs.
The rise of quantum computing has underscored the necessity for that security in emerging technologies even further. According to the Quantum Computing Market Analysis Report, the global quantum computing market was worth $9 billion in 2023 and is expected to rise to $85 billion by 2030. The strength of computing capabilities that quantum technology will provide poses serious threats to traditional encryption methods. 5G communication technology is another feature of emerging technology security. By 2023, more than 3 million 5G base stations had been built in China, serving 1.2 billion users and contributing 60% to the global total. While enhancing connectivity, it also keeps the focus of international rivalry.
This increased application of biotechnology in healthcare, agriculture, and defense is rapid, but the associated side effects are becoming obvious. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 made clear the critical necessity of biosafety, as pandemic-related losses across the world went beyond $12 trillions. Under such a situation, Chinese intelligence agencies have reinforced keeping an eye over the research and development of biotechnology. For instance, 45%of global applications for CRISPR gene-editing patent are from China alone putting a strong ground to take technologically standard uses. Emerging technology security includes space technology and satellite networks. In 2023, across the globe, more than 2,700 commercial and military satellites were launched, where low-Earth orbit satellites make up 80%, mainly used for communication, navigation, and intelligence gathering. With the rapid development of technologies such as the BeiDou System for satellite navigation and Long March rockets, a global satellite network system was set up by China while possible future space threats are monitored forward-lookingly.
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